After a draw in the first round of the parliamentary elections, the Nupes left and the presidential coalition will begin a week-long duel on Monday, over Emmanuel Macron’s ability to maintain an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
“We are the only political power capable of achieving a strong and clear majority,” stressed Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who returns to the campaign Monday morning in Calvados’ 6th constituency, where she comfortably led in the first round. †
The Macron, united under the Ensemble! label, defeated the united left by just over 21,000 votes, out of 23.3 million voters in the first round (25.75% of the vote, against 25.66% for the Nupes) and retains the advantage in the forecasts of the 577 seats of deputies.
But the suspense is high to know whether Emmanuel Macron will manage to retain an absolute majority of 289 seats two months after his re-election, allowing him to push through his reforms, starting with those of pensions.
The two camps have one week to counter a record abstention, which reached 52.49% of registered voters, more than the previous one in 2017 (51.3%).
More participation is theoretically the only reserve Nupes can benefit from after uniting the left-wing parties in the first round. Reverse Together! could, still in theory, benefit from the contribution of some of the LR voters in the first round.
“There is an anti-Macron referendum being set up for the 2nd round,” confirmed on LCP candidate Nupes Eric Coquerel on Monday, continuing the strategy of voting personalization, prompting Jean-Luc Mélenchon to ask to take it to Matignon. .
The different institutes give the Macron camp within a range of 255 to 295 seats, when the left (LFI, PCF, PS and EELV) gathered under the banner of Nupes is rated between 150 and 210 seats.
– “Serious warning” –
“The majority is far from certain (…) This is a very serious warning addressed to Emmanuel Macron,” emphasizes Brice Teinturier, deputy CEO of Ipsos France.
The fifteen ministers in the running have gone through the first round. But some are in serious trouble, starting with the Minister for Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion Amélie Montchalin, the centerpiece of the government. European Affairs Minister Clément Beaune is also in unfavorable mood in Paris, where Nupes won three first-round elections and takes first in 12 of the 18 constituencies.
Others such as Elisabeth Borne or ministers Gabriel Attal and Olivier Véran, on the other hand, are well on their way to winning and thus maintaining their position in government.
Nupes leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon called on the “people” to “rise” in the voting booths next Sunday to allow him to become prime minister and impose cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron, as the multi-left had achieved in 1997 with Lionel Joseph.
– “No vote for the RN” –
Mélenchon has already succeeded as the left, thanks to its historic union deal, should be the main opposition bloc in Palais-Bourbon, taking over from the Republicans, who will count their survivors among the hundred leaving. LR, however, limits the damage to the point that it hopes to act as a pivot in the future legislature.
The outgoing majority, after trial and error on the left on Sunday night, clearly called on Monday morning not to vote for the RN in the 58 constituencies where candidates from the Lepenist party and Nupes will face each other in the second round. .
“In these specific cases, RN-Nupes, let’s be very clear: no vote for the National Rally. We have never lacked clarity on this subject (…), no vote for a project closure, for a project that we do not consider it good for the country,” the government spokesman, Olivia Grégoire, launched on RTL, saying that in a handful of cases there would be no voting instructions.
As expected, National Rally candidates (18.5% to 19.8%) were unable to capitalize on Marine Le Pen’s momentum, who had secured more than 40% of the vote in the second round.
Limited to eight elected in 2017, however, the contingent of RN deputies should be much larger this time around, still counting in his ranks Ms. Le Pen, well ahead in her Pas-de-Calais constituency (53.96% but not elected in the first round due to lack of sufficient voters).
In a duel between Together! and Nupes, Ms. Le Pen urged her voters “not to choose.” “France is neither a trading space nor a ZAD,” she bellowed.
Eric Zemmour, for his part, one of the leaders of the presidential election, missed his landing in politics. The far-right polemicist was eliminated in the Var, as were the other ambassadors of his Reconquest! party, Guillaume Peltier in the Loir-et-Cher and Stanislas Rigault in the Vaucluse.