Barometer of voting intentions in the 2022 parliamentary elections – Wave 46

National survey conducted online from Friday 29 April to Monday 02 May 2022, ie mainly before the conclusion of an agreement between LFI and EELV for the parliamentary elections. Sample of 2,366 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, including 2,044 people on the electoral rolls.
Regional survey conducted online from Tuesday 26 to Friday 29 April 2022 (before the announcement of the alliance between France Insoumise and Europe Ecologie Les Verts at national level).
Quota method and adjustment applied to the following variables: gender, age, socio-professional category, region and previous electoral behavior of the interviewee.

Paris, May 3

Like every week, Harris Interactive and Toluna interviewed the French for Challenges almost a month before the first round of the parliamentary elections.

Download the national report

Download the regional report (PACA)

  • If the presidential election had drawn a political France articulated around three political poles, the following weeks brought a succession of negotiations and possible alliances. So in view of the parliamentary elections the political offer that will be presented to the French is still uncertain. In order to test the behavior of the French, we presented the French with a fictitious offer, that is, unique in each constituency and incorporeal (“a candidate supported by…”) that reflects the local effects of the elections and the territorial anchoring of the candidates. In anticipation of the real offer, this approach makes it possible to better estimate the state of mind with which the French are approaching the elections.
  • While the re-elected president will try to regain an absolute majority in the National Assembly and Jean-Luc Mélenchon has publicly defended his desire to secure the majority of seats, we tested two possible configurations during these parliamentary elections.† In the configuration where the main political forces would present candidates individually in each constituency, the situation is similar to last week. The candidates supported by La République en Marche, the MoDem and Horizons would receive 24% of the votes cast out of round, ahead of the candidates supported by the National Rally (23%) and those supported by rebellious France (19%). On the left, 7% (+2 points compared to last week) of voters who express their intention to vote would choose a candidate supported by Europe Ecology Les Verts; 7% (-1 point) for the Socialist Party or various leftists, more than the score of these candidates in the presidential elections. Likewise, on the right, 8% would go to a candidate supported by Les Républicains and its allies. Finally, the candidates supported by Reconquête! would win 6% of the votes cast (-1 point), ie a score comparable to that of Éric Zemmour at 1er round of presidential elections. Very logical the voters on 1er round of presidential elections are generally mainly aimed at candidates who are supported by the political reference formation.
  • While France Disobey and Europa Ecology Les Verts unveiled their agreement for this election and should present common candidates between the two political formations, and while the Socialist Party and the French Communist Party are still in discussion, we have renewed our configuration (yet increasingly hypothetical) alliances between major political forces in the first round of presidential elections. It should be noted that the interrogation took place even before the agreement between the FI and EELV was known to most of the interviewees.
  • The union candidates from the left (an alliance of France Insoumise, the Communist Party, the Socialist Party and Europe Ecologie Les Verts) would win 33% of the vote, the same level as the candidates backed by the union’s center and right. (La République en Marche, the MoDem, Horizons, Les Républicains and the UDI) with also 33%, and for the candidates backed by a far-right alliance comprising the National Rally, Debout la France and Reconquest! (30%).
  • The association of left-wing formations in particular raises questions about the adherence to this common strategy by their respective constituents. note that 92% of voters for a candidate supported only by La France insoumise and 81% of voters for a communist candidate would choose a union candidate if that was the political offer in their constituency. To a lesser extent, socialist and ecological voters would usually choose to vote for a common candidate, but to a lesser extent (77% and 63%), respectively. Faced with a situation of unification of the different left-wing formations, the other voters would switch to an LREM-LR vote (11% of the communist voters, 12% of the socialist voters and especially 22% of the voters of environmental activists would opt for this choice. to make).
  • While the electoral supply in each constituency for these parliamentary elections is incomplete, and while we remained cautious about the specificities of the local situation and the seniority of elected officials, we proceeded to projections into the National Assembly seat based on of these two configurations above. In the case of individual candidacies from each of the major political forces, the candidates of the presidential majority (La République en Marche, the MoDem and Horizons) would amass between 338 and 378 seats (compared to 346 currently for the deputies of the LREM groups , Modem, Act), ie an absolute majority and a gain of a few seats compared to our forecast last week† The Republican and UDI delegates would see their numbers divided by more than half: between 35 and 65 (compared to 120 for the LR and UDI groups currently), while the National Assembly would see the arrival of just under a hundred RN -deputies (65-95 deputies against 8 during the previous parliamentary term). On the left, the Insoumis group would be strengthened (25-45 deputies against 17 currently), while the socialists can count on about thirty deputies (a comparable number).
  • In the case of candidatures supported by 3 political blocs, the presidential majority (in this case linked to Les Républicains and the UDI) would be strengthened by about ten seats compared to last week and would therefore again obtain an absolute majority (between 336 and 376 deputies). The union deputies of the left could be between 70 and 90, less than the deputies RN, Debout la France and Reconquête! (between 110 and 140 delegates).
  • As part of this survey, we also surveyed the French more broadly about the trust they place in each of the political formations on immigration. On this subject, not a single political formation stands out that makes good proposals on this subject: La République en Marche and its allies are seen as being able to propose good ideas to 39% of the French for the National Rally (36%) and rebellious France (34 Rather than a level of trust, it is above all a matter of strong mistrust expressed on this subject, since the level of the French who believe that they do not trust the various political parties “at all” is between 34% for Republicans and La République en Marche and 46% for Reconquest! the political education of Éric Zemmour.
  • This wave of surveys was also the first of an original system of study that focused on the balance of power in parliamentary elections in different regions. Indeed, until the first round of the parliamentary elections, we will test the same political configuration every week in a large French region. This week we start with the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region, where Marine Le Pen won 27.6% of the vote in the first round of the presidential elections, ahead of Emmanuel Macron (23.3%) and Jean-Luc Melenchon (19.8%). Remember that she also came out on top in the 2nd round.
  • In the continuity of the results of the presidential elections, the candidates backed by the National Rally would also come out on top in the first round of parliamentary elections in the region (30% against 23% nationally), ahead of the candidates supported by the presidential majority (21% against 24%) and the candidates supported by France Insoumise (14% against 19%). While Éric Zemmour performed particularly well in the presidential elections in this region (11.7% against 7.1% nationwide), the candidates were supported by his Reconquête! would collect 10% of the votes cast, i.e. 4 points better than what we measure at the level of the whole territory (6%) and a result higher than that measured for the LR and EELV candidates (8% and 7% respectively ie scores comparable to those measured at the national level.
  • In the same way as what we measured at the national level, in this region we also tested the hypothesis of alliances between the main political formations to form three major political blocs, and this before the announcement of an alliance between France Insoumise and Europe Ecology Les Verts in the context of these parliamentary elections. In this configuration, the candidates are supported by an arc leading from the RN to Reconquest! via Debout la France would therefore get almost 4 votes out of 10 (38%, i.e. 8 points more than what is measured nationally) and would constitute the first political force in the region, ahead of an alliance made up of the presidential majority and the LRs (31%) and the alliance of the left parties ( 25%).
  • Remember that at this stage, the Reconquest movement, these configurations remain very hypothetical! notably announced that he would not present a candidate in certain constituencies where an RN candidate is active. Nevertheless, the National Rally appears to be able to capitalize on its historic presence in the region to win a certain number of constituencies.
  • This regional survey also examined the issue of the most prominent voice issues in the PACA region. The 3 main concerns that will count in the voting choice of voters in the region are unchanged compared to what is seen in all French people: purchasing power (62%), pensions (41%) and health (40%). However, and this is in line with the high scores measured by the RN and Reconquest candidates! in the region, more than 1 in 3 residents say immigration (37% against 29% national) and security (29% against 20% national) will be important in their vote choice.
  • Finally, in this study we also examine the confidence placed in certain political parties to make good proposals to the National Assembly on the issue of immigration, a theme that is emphasized even more strongly by voters in the PACA region than by all French. And quite logically, in the PACA region, the Rassemblement national is the leading political party in which the inhabitants of the region say they have confidence in immigration issues (47% or 11 points more in the PACA region compared to what is measured among all French people) , for LREM and its allies, yet the political force in which the French say they rely most on this subject (35% in the PACA region against 39% at the national level).

Download the National Report and the Regional Report (PACA)

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