Legislative: what the polls predict

Jean-Luc Mélenchon imagines succeeding a newly appointed Elisabeth Borne, Emmanuel Macron plans to rule with a loyal majority, the judge hopes to save the furniture, Marine Le Pen begins to dream of finally crossing the threshold of 15 deputies The Greens are determined to find a place in the hemisphere, while Socialists and Communists rely on an agreement with the Insoumis to retain a parliamentary faction. What is the balance of power as the first round of parliamentary elections approaches?

The number of votes is not the number of seats

A Kéa Partners poll conducted by: the echoes between May 14 and May 18 gives an interesting insight. Renaissance, the new name of the Macronist majority, would lead with 27% of the voting intentions. Three points behind the left is united under the Nupes (New Popular Ecological and Social Union) banner, while the RN is at 22%. LR, which benefits from a strong local anchorage, is at 11%, the Reconquest list at 5%. In short, the balance of power is somewhat like the first round of the presidential election with a division into three blocs: a liberal, moderate and pro-European center, an increasingly left-wing and less social-democratic left, and then a populist extreme right.

In light of these initial results, the left is already dreaming of ruling the country. Yes but. There is a significant gap between the number of ballots in the ballot boxes and the number of effective seats. As Mathieu Gallard, Director of Studies at Ipsos, points out: “one of the handicaps Nupes faces is the concentration of left-wing votes in a few constituencies”. For example, in the first round of the presidential elections alone, LFI exceeded 40% in 40 constituencies. But the left of all tendencies is below 30% in 313 constituencies. This explains why, despite 24%, it would only get between 140 and 170 seats, far behind Renaissance, which is measured between 310 and 350 seats, or more than 289, the number needed to achieve a majority. LR would win between 50 and 70 seats, the RN between 15 and 30.

In the first round, LFI exceeded 40% in 40 constituencies. But the left sits below 30% in 313 constituencies. The left-wing mood is very concentrated

Parties’ strengths and weaknesses

In this period of armed vigil, all political movements envision a brighter future. While they all have cause for hope, they also suffer from significant weaknesses.

Renaissance : The newly created political power will benefit from a constant under the Fifth Republic: the tendency to give the re-elected president the majority. Add to that a traditional outbound bonus that benefits the political side that already benefits from the majority.

Another asset to the Macronist lists, abundant reserves of votes. In the event of a runoff against a Nupes candidate against a Renaissance candidate, the latter will benefit from the votes of the right, even those of the RN. Conversely, in the event of a Renaissance-RN duel, the centrist candidate would have to capitalize on the vote of left-wing voters. The presidential party is therefore the favorite to maintain the majority, some seats ceded to the left must be compensated by seats from the right.

nudes: During the previous parliamentary elections, the left suffered from her division. Five years later, it is still a minority in the country. But it is moving forward united under a common flag. Enough to mobilize his voters and regain their strength. If it seems almost impossible for her to gain a majority and win Matignon, she can exceed 120 seats, or double her number of deputies. On the other hand, the fact that he has placed himself under the thumb of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the left wing of EELV makes it more radical, as evidenced by the “business” Bouhafs or burkini. These ‘new age’ lefts could deter many moderate voters and erase this political edge from many areas. The suburbs and centers of the major metropolitan areas, on the other hand, should welcome Nupes.

National meeting: A blocking vote in the second round, an electorate little mobilized in the parliamentary elections. These two obstacles prevent the RN from getting a parliamentary group in a majority vote. The 2017 elections confirmed the trend: 21% of the vote in the first round ended with fewer than 10 deputies.

These weaknesses still exist. But for the first time, the party led by Marine Le Pen is able to keep an eye on a faction thanks to several assets: a score of more than 40% in 11 constituencies (where the Republican front does little, the RN vote is downplayed), 28 divisions where she finished first in the second round. The Hauts-de-France, the South Region and the Grand Est are the party’s preferred three regions to win seats.

LR : A party under 5% in the first round and not finishing in the lead or in second place in any constituency, strongholds that have become macronists or lepenists, candidates who give up the fight, others (less than expected) who join the majority add… On paper the picture is bleak for LR. However, the party does have resources, as witnessed by the good results of the municipal and regional elections. Outgoing deputies who are often well established and supported on the ground can hope to mitigate the damage. The heirs of Gaullism are likely to lose ground. Keeping between 50 and 70 deputies makes it possible to exist, weigh and prepare for the future.

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