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In Northern Ontario, where the chiefs are headed this week, 11 of the 13 outgoing deputies are running for succession. In the regions with the most French speakers, several election races seem to have been won by the New Democrats, such as Nickel Belt, Algoma-Manitoulin or Timiskaming-Cochrane. Conversely, Nipissing seems strongly attached to the services of her MP and progressive Conservative minister. Two questions remain: can the liberals take Sudbury back from the NDP and can the conservatives overthrow the NDP in Mushkegowuk-James Bay?
Jamie West in danger in Sudbury
According to estimates by the Qc125 site, Jamie West (32%), the incumbent New Democrat MP and official opposition spokesperson for Northern Infrastructure, Transport and Roads, would be ahead of Liberal David Farrow (34%) in Sudbury should the election fail. to be held today.
The former, former chairman of the Sudbury District Labor Council, ended the long Liberal rule since the mid-1990s in 2018, then consistently brought the post-secondary issue to the House as Laurentian University cut its enrollments and programs in French in 2020.
The second, a former elementary school principal and community volunteer, is entering politics for the first time, hoping to bring former Energy Secretary Glenn Thibeault’s driving back into the liberal fold. Far behind, French-Ontarian Marc Despatie, communications director at Collège Boréal, which will represent the Ford Nation (23%), and elected green David Robinson (5%), should not be taking the lead in this 26% Francophone constituency.
■ PC: Marc Despatie NDP: Jamie West PLO: David Farrow ■ Green: David Robinson
Fierce duel Bourgouin-Côté in Mushkegowuk-James Bay
In a 60% French-speaking area, outgoing Guy Bourgouin is looking for a second term. Official opposition spokesperson for Francophone Affairs and a member of the Permanent Commission on Government Affairs, this workers’ rights activist proudly describes himself as Métis and speaks out regularly on Francophone issues.
This protégé of MP Bisson has been an early proponent of the modernization of French law on language services for the past four years. He also tried to pass a bill on hatpins and sharply criticized the problems with access to government information in French and the government advertising market, saying it was unfair to French-language newspapers.
He is closely followed in voting intentions (35%) by the progressive-conservative Éric Côté (33%), a councilor from Moonbeam. This former director-general of public works of the city of Kapuskasing is counting on his attachment to small businesses and the post-secondary sector to make a breakthrough in the electorate. Liberal Matthew Pronovost and Green candidate Catherine Jones appear in the background, credited with 25% and 3% respectively.
■ PC: Éric Côté NDP: Guy Bourgouin ■ PLO: Matthew Pronovost ■ Green: Catherine Jones
Gélinas on his way to a fifth term
In this fortified castle of the New Democrats, which is 40% French-speakers, the verdict of the polls should unsurprisingly lean in favor of the outgoing France Gélinas. The elected new Democrat (47%), well ahead of her pursuers Randy Hazlett (PC, 24%), Gilles Proulx (PLO, 17%) and Glenys Babcock (Green, 5%) and is headed straight for a fifth term.
After being an NDP critic on French-speaking affairs, she passed the baton to Guy Bourgouin in 2018, which did not stop him from raising the barricades in several dossiers during Doug Ford’s tenure, notably in access to health, for which she is the spokesperson, criticized, among other things, the government’s immobility in the area of linguistic identification and the accents on the Ontario health map, as well as the shortage of French-speaking personnel.
His main opponent, progressive conservative Randy Hazlett, is a French River city councilor and sits on the board of Public Health Sudbury and Districts.
■ PC: Randy Hazlett ■ NPD: France Gélinas ■ PLO: Gilles Proulx ■ Green: Glenys Babcock
Mantha races ahead in Algoma-Manitoulin
In this New Democrat castle, outgoing MP, Michael Mantha, holds the rope (42%). Elected in 2011, the official opposition critic for Northern Development and Tourism is seeking a fourth consecutive term. He has defended several cases in the north and in particular lamented the loss of the bilingual judge in the Algoma district last year.
Hot on his trail: Progressive Conservative Cheryl Fort, Mayor of the Township of Hornepayne. By taking on these positions, she became the second Indigenous woman in Ontario to be elected to the position in 2018. She is projected to be 27% ahead of Liberal Tim Vine (16%), a Manitoulin Island hospital executive and member of the University of Sudbury’s board of regents, and green activist Maria Legault (6%).
Algoma-Manitoulin also has a large number of French-speaking residents, especially around the towns of Elliott Lake, Chapleau, Dubreuilville and Blind River.
■ PC: Cheryl Fort ■ NDP: Michael Mantha ■ PLO: Tim Vine ■ Green: Maria Legault
Nipissing reaches out to Vic Fedeli. to be re-elected
The outgoing Minister of Economic Development encountered little resistance in Nipissing. Mr. Fedeli could win half the vote in this drive that includes the towns of North Bay, Sturgeon Falls and Mattawa and concentrates nearly 23% of French speakers.
Elected in 2011, this pillar of the Ford Nation heads straight for a fourth term in the stronghold of former Prime Minister Mike Harris, spanning more than 20 years, from 1981 to 2002. Faithful from Doug Ford’s first hour, The The North Bay native has had two major government departments: Finance and Economic Development.
Her closest pursuers are two elected city officials: the new East Ferry Democrat Erika Lougheed and North Bay liberal Tanya Vrebosch are said to mobilize 25% and 15% of the electorate at this stage, according to the Qc125 site.
■ PC: Vic Fedeli ■ NDP: Erika Lougheed ■ PLO: Tanya Vrebosch ■ Green: Sean McClocklin
The balance tips for the NDP in Timiskaming-Cochrane
In this northern area that includes Kirkland Lake, Cochane, Iroquois Falls, Cobalt and even Témiskaming-Shore, new Democrat John Vanthof is heading for a fourth term in office (44%). He has been elected since 2011 and speaks French as a second language, but his party did not place him on the list of elected officials classified as French speakers.
Member of the Council of Internal Economy, opposition critic for agriculture and food and rural development, and chief whip of the official opposition, he is unbeatable for the cause of the French speakers of his territory.
Behind him, progressive conservative William Foy, a conservation officer in the Department of Northern Development, Mines, Natural Resources and Forestry, is credited with 24%, while liberal Brian A. Johnson and Green Kristopher Rivard share the crumbs: 17% and 7% .
■ PC: William Foy NDP: John Vanthof ■ PLO: Brian A. Johnson ■ Green: Kristopher Rivard
Timmins: Shortened campaign for Gilles Bisson
Victim of a heart attack last April, the outgoing deputy is staying behind the race for now, but plans to return in the middle of the campaign. “He wants to get into the fight, but we’re trying to hold him back a little bit. It is important to listen to your doctor who recommends rest. He is aware of that and is putting every opportunity on his side to get back in shape,” says a close friend of his entourage, reassuring about his health condition.
With 41% of the vote in his favor, the re-election of whoever represents the region for more than 30 years should be a formality in this strong New-Democratic castle that is home to nearly 15,000 French speakers. Mr Bisson’s first pursuer, the progressive Conservative George Pirie, is credited with 32% of the voting intentions. He is none other than the mayor of Timmins, a city economically driven by the mining sector. Prior to entering municipal politics, Mr. Pirie was a senior executive in this sector for over thirty-five years, leading several companies.
Among the other candidates: the liberal Mickey Auger (17%) and the green candidate Elizabeth Lockhard (3%). Riding Timmins was born in 2018 from the redesign of Timmins-Baie James, who gave birth to riding Mushkegowuk-Baie James at the same time.
■ PC: George Pirie ■ NDP: Gilles Bisson ■ PLO: Mickey Auger ■ Green: Elizabeth Lockhard
Estimates as of 10 May 2022: source Qc125, electoral projection site based on electoral trends, demographic changes and political polls.