April 24, 2022. A few minutes after the results of the second round, Marine Le Pen speaks in the Armenonville pavilion. Far from being defeated, the hapless finalist projects her camp to the next deadlines by announcing to participate in “the great reshuffle and stating that the “great legislative battle has begun”† She even winks at the leaders of her movement who have gone to Éric Zemmour, saying that they “neither rancor nor resentment”† Enough to leave hope for the supporters of the union of rights. But this was short-lived.
No extreme right nupes
Soon the left united and Jean-Luc Mélenchon took on the role of the main opponent. During this time, Marine Le Pen went on vacation, and her lieutenants repeatedly objected to requests for national unity from the Zemmour camp. All tones are used. In fact, Jordan Bardella announces that “there will be RN candidates everywhere”† In a more colorful way Franck Allisio, advisor to Marine Le Pen says: “We will not run with those who betrayed us, spit on us and tried to kill us.” This refusal does not help Reconquest’s business! who probably won’t be able to win a single seat when facing an RN candidate.
The law of numbers…
In fact, Marine Le Pen needs absolutely no reinforcements from the zemmourists for the parliamentary elections. Some numbers help to understand this line. In the first round, the RN candidate came ahead of her Reconquest rival! in 93% of the 577 constituencies, the only exception being the French living abroad or in the upscale neighborhoods of Ile-de-France, where Emmanuel Macron is largely in the lead and the far right is structurally weak. Outside the Paris area it is in the 4and constituency of the Var that Éric Zemmour achieved his best performance: 14.6%. But Marine Le Pen gets 32.16% there. Let’s add that she won 30 divisions in the second round.
Eric Zemmour needs Marine Le Pen, it’s not mutual
For the parliamentary elections, the aim of the RN is clear: to finally obtain a parliamentary group, ie at least 15 deputies, which would require a doubling of the number of seats in the Palais-Bourbon. An achievable goal as the populist party exceeded 40% of the vote in 11 constituencies in the first round. These are also often located in areas where Eric Zemmour underperforms his national average. His “reinforcement” is therefore considered useless.
The marinist strategists are therefore betting that an alliance with Éric Zemmour will not bring votes in the constituencies where the RN is already favored, but also in those where it could be a bummer. Especially since the first round of the presidential election showed that voters were seduced by Reconquest! mostly voted helpful, which explains the 7% of the polemicist.
… and feelings
In addition, forging an alliance with the polemicist would lead to the withdrawal of nominations from loyal militants who stayed at home. A very bad signal sent to base. Let’s also add that the RN plans to complete its demonization work. Candidates stamped Zemmour, often champions of “re-demonization” could ruin this substantive work. The RN also “cleanses” candidates known to be close to Éric Zemmour. This is the case of the Niçois Philippe Vardon who lost his official inauguration because he made comments that deviate from the line.
More than ever, Marine Le Pen, like her father, wants to pursue an independent strategy and “punish” a party whose staff has come from her camp and defected under the assumption that the grass was greener elsewhere. On the far right, more than anywhere else, history is only an eternal beginning and Éric Zemmour risks suffering Bruno Mégret’s fate: a few minutes of glory and then marginalization.